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Starlink constellation health

Show HN: Starlink constellation health – 108 reentry anomalies in TLE data

40 AI Score
Show_hn other Added Mar 26, 2026

Details

Sector
other
Total Funding
$0
Last Round
$0

About

Applied geometric trajectory similarity (STTS) to 39.9M TLE records across the full Starlink constellation. Instead of propagating orbits forward through atmospheric models, the framework asks: does this satellite&#x27;s trajectory geometrically resemble trajectories that preceded confirmed reentries?<p>Results on 257 confirmed reentries: V1=250.6x basin separation, Recall=1.000, mean detection lead 471 days.<p>Applied to 15,170 operational satellites: 108 fire the reentry signal. Not in the deorbit campaign. BSTAR is normal — signal is trajectory geometry. 23 are above 600km where drag is negligible.<p>Prior work (Oliveira et al. 2025, Frontiers) tracked SC25 effects on satellites that already reentered. This asks the forward-looking question: which operational satellites currently show precursor geometry?<p>Code runs on a clean clone. Reproducible 10&#x2F;10. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;mojoatomic&#x2F;stts.git" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;mojoatomic&#x2F;stts.git</a>

AI Score Reasoning

Heuristic score based on available signals. Funding: $0, Source: show_hn.

Source

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