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Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating
I've gotten to the point in my career where I now make strategic decisions often (hiring, firing, choosing what equipment to go with, etc.), as well as in my personal life where I need to strongly weigh my options for a big purchase or investment. I found a not-so-surprising parallel between the two as these decisions "resolved." Am I making good decisions or am I getting lucky?<p>Did some research, read some books, and realized I should get in the habit of tracking my decision process. That quickly turned into the idea that formed Convexly.<p>The landing page is a 10-question calibration quiz where you assign a confidence level to statements drawn from a rotating pool of 100 (working on making the pool larger) and you get a Brier score back instantly. No signup required, and you can share your scores right away.<p>If you find it interesting, you can create a free account where you can track your decisions with probability estimates, resolve them over time, and get calibration curves that show if you are over/underconfident. From what I've seen so far, users are overconfident when they say they're between 70-90% sure about something.<p>For the math: Beta-PERT distributions for the payoff modeling, Kelly criterion for the position sizing, signal detection theory for separating skill from randomness.<p>On the coding side: FastAPI with NumPy/SciPy, frontend in Next.js and Supabase.<p>So far this has been a solo project of mine. If you want to see all the features use code SHOWHN for 30 days of full access, no credit card required.<p>Curious if anything about your score surprised you after taking the quiz.
Convexly is a well-engineered utility for a niche audience of 'rationalist' decision-makers, but it currently lacks the scale and defensibility required for venture-scale returns. While the mathematical implementation is impressive for a solo project, the transition from a personal tool to a high-growth platform remains unproven.